There is a lengthy and tedious article in the NYT about the intellignce that lead to the war in Iraq. Nevertheless, this article is worth a read. This article got mentioned in slashdot, under the title “White House Lied About Iraq Nuclear Programs”. This is both inaccurate, and makes an issue that should not be politicized into a political issue.
What the article essentially documents is a failure of the intelligence system. In fact, the failure was more in the inability of the strong differing views to percolate into the higher levels of decision making. In particular, the CIA has a direct access to the president, while other agencies don’t. In particular, the CIA was relying essentially on one expert, in making their judgement about the usage of aluminum tubes for making centrifuges for getting enriched uranium. The issue at hand was whether Iraq was trying to build a nuclear bomb. The expert was **wrong**. In fact, the expert was clearly wrong, and other experts in other Agencies pointed it out (especially people the energy department).
However, the decision makers got very one sided picture of this argument. Hearing only the side of the CIA. Only when the whole argument became mute, did the argument in the intelligence level reached the white house.
This wrong intelligence was one of the main reasons the Bush administration used to support the war (we need to act now, before the evidence would be a nuclear mushroom). What this story exposes above everything else is a systematic failure in the intelligence management in the US. In particular, the decision makers were unaware to strong arguments about interpretation of evidence. The CIA was able to send memos to the president that were not provided to other agencies (i.e., the enemy?). A single expert, was essentially able to skew the intelligence picture provided to the president, although his view was a minority among experts on the topic.
This is not the only intelligence failure the US had recently experienced. The failure in 9/11 exposed a similar systematic structural failure, where the CIA had information that if it was provided to the FBI would have, with high probability, prevented 9/11.
Intelligence is a very fuzzy topic, sometime based on interpreting very few facts, and based on unreliable sources. And as the above demonstrate, intelligence agencies are not infallible. This is an expensive lesson Israel learnt at 1973, when despite several very clear signs of looming war, the intelligence agencies because of a “concept” failed to predict this war. Following the Yom Kippor war, drastic changes in the way Israel collect and analyze intelligence information were made. In fact, it is quite common in Israel to hear that the head of Army Intelligence is disagreeing with the Mosad head about interpreting the known facts. Usually when they both appear before some committee in the Israeli Kenest.
So, would we see similar changes in the US system? I doubt it. The US government is a huge (and almost monolithic) bureaucracy. Structural changes takes decades (Richard Clarke has a lot of interesting information about this in his book “against all enemies”). The most crucial thing is probably a new body that would decimate the intelligence from various sources and agencies, and deliver it to the decision makers (together with conflicting views if such exist). While essentially such a proposal is included in the recommendations of the 9/11 committee, it seems like the current administration is trying to wish-wash it away.
In the end of the day, any politician mentioning information from intelligence to support his or her views, might in the end of the chain rely on some clueless guy in the CIA, and despite the billions of dollars the US put into it, the intelligence just might be wrong. It was wrong so many times in the past.